A deckbuilding question about OP09 Shanks on r/ONEPIECETCG sends us back to the set's tape: $640.07 boxes, $225 of rip EV, and 333,257 boxes already opened.
A newcomer posted to r/ONEPIECETCG asking whether a Shanks list built around OP09 cards still holds up in the current meta. Fair question for the gameplay crowd. For the price desk, the more interesting number is what the set those cards come from now costs: $640.07 a box against an MSRP of $107.76, or 5.9 times issue price, 22 months after release.
> $5,500 · the OP09 Roger manga rare, the set's ceiling card
OP09 and the 5.9x problem
OP09 has compounded 195% over the past year and 162% annualized from MSRP. That is the bull case in two figures. The bear case sits right beside it: the trailing three-month CAGR is negative 20%, so the recent tape has been going the other way while the long-run chart stays steep. Packs work out to $26.67 each at current box pricing.
The Shanks the Reddit poster is building around has a manga-art counterpart in this set, Shanks (004) (Manga) at $1,795, fourth on the OP09 leaderboard. Playing the deck and chasing the alt art are, as usual, two entirely different budgets.
Inside the box
Rip expected value is $225 against that $640.07 box, an EV ratio of 0.35. Every sealed product is negative EV by design, so a ratio under 1 is the baseline, not a scandal. What 0.35 does say is that OP09 boxes are priced well above what the average rip returns, which is what happens when a set stops being printed and starts being a collectible. Current EV leaders sit far higher: OP11 at 0.76 and OP14 at 0.73, per the EV page.
All five of the top cards are manga variants, and each of the top three is sitting at its own all time high with flat 7-day and 30-day reads. A frozen top end is not the same as a strong one, but it is not bleeding either.
The graded side
PSA has certified 52,488 OP09 cards with an 88% gem rate, and graded copies carry a 1.9x premium over raw across the set. That gem rate is high enough that a PSA 10 is not a scarcity event on most cards, which is why the multiples on the headliners vary so much: Roger's PSA 10 runs 3x raw at $16,358.20, while Teach's sits at just 1.3x, $2,606.45 against $2,000.99.
Estimated boxes opened: 333,257. That is the supply number that matters most for anyone pricing the mid-rares the Reddit deck actually needs. Our destruction tracker carries the full picture.
Long-term read
OP09 scores 8 of 10 on our Long-Term Score, labelled Strong hold. The drivers are legible from the above: a top five that is entirely manga art, a 195% one-year CAGR, and a sealed price that has detached from MSRP by nearly six times. The drag is the negative 20% three-month figure and a graded population past 52,000.
For the poster: the deck question is a meta question. The set it draws from is, by the chart, a collectibles market that stopped pretending to be a draft format a while ago. Run the rest of the field through the screener.
ONEPIECE TERMINAL
