Methodology

Every number on OnePiece Terminal comes from a documented pipeline. This page explains each one so our data can be checked, cited, and trusted.

Card prices

Raw card prices mirror TCGplayer market prices, synced nightly at 22:00 UTC for every tracked product. When a card has no current market price, we show its listing median or last-known market value and label it as such on the card page. Daily history goes back to early 2024. Cards are never hidden for going stale: a card with no recent trades shows its last-known value with the date.

Booster box EV

The EV chartcomputes the expected value of opening each English booster box: for every rarity class we multiply the class's average singles value by its copies per box, using pull-rate estimates compiled from community case-opening data (Bandai publishes no official rates; we label estimates as estimates). Cards worth under $4 count as zero, because in practice nobody sells them. Serial-numbered cards and promos are excluded as lottery odds. The honest consequence: almost every box has negative EV, which is what real-world ripping looks like. A tool that tells you every box is profitable is broken.

Graded values

Graded prices combine three sources, in order of freshness: real eBay sold listings, PriceCharting's graded market guide (used with permission and credited), and community-submitted prices, each reviewed by hand before publication. Community prices demote automatically when a fresher guide price disagrees. PSA 9 values stand in as the estimated raw value for cards that have never traded raw.

PSA population reports

Population counts come from PSA's published population report, refreshed weekly, matched to our catalogue per card and variant. Where a printing cannot be matched unambiguously it is left blank rather than guessed.

Whale Watch

Whale Watchflags cards whose 3-day or 7-day move is large relative to that card's own historical volatility (a robust sigma over 130 days of history), so a $20 card jumping 30% and a $2,000 card jumping 8% are judged on the same scale. Minimum price $20 and minimum move 6% keep noise out.

CAGR (annualized return)

Every box, card and set page shows returns over 3, 6 and 12 months and over all recorded history, annualized: (end price ÷ start price) ^ (365 ÷ days) − 1. The start is the first price on record inside the window. A window with under 60% of its days on record shows no figure at all rather than a 1-year rate extrapolated from ten weeks, and nothing is annualized under 14 days. "From MSRP" on the screeneris the same formula from release day at the box's retail price. The "my purchase" box on each page runs the formula on your own price and date, in your browser; nothing is stored.

MSRP multiple and cost per pack

Box price divided by the Bandai retail price, banded: green under 2x, yellow 2 to 4x, orange 4 to 8x, red past 8x. Cost per pack is the box price over its pack count (24 for main and extra boosters, 20 for premium boosters).

Grading EV

The grading boardranks cards by the expected profit of one PSA submission: gem rate × PSA 10 price + (1 − gem rate) × PSA 9 price − PSA fee − raw price. Gem rate is PSA 10s over everything PSA has graded of that exact printing, and a card needs at least 30 graded copies to get one. The fee is PSA's published tier for the declared value (we use the PSA 10 price as the declared value). A miss is assumed to grade a 9; where we hold no PSA 9 price the raw price stands in. Shipping, turnaround and pop growth while the card is away are ignored. Cards whose PSA 10 price is more than 12x raw are held off the board: on a card with an 80% gem rate that gap is a mismatched printing in one of our sources, not a trade.

Destruction (boxes already opened)

The destruction trackerestimates how many booster boxes of each set have been ripped from the cards we can count: chase PSA population ÷ share of pulls that get graded ÷ copies of that chase a box deals. Copies per box come from the same pull-rate table as the EV model, divided by the number of cards in that class. The submission share is an assumption and steps with the card's raw price (70% for cards over $2,000, down to 5% under $50); the slider scales every tier together. Each set's figure is the median over its five priciest chases so one bad match cannot carry it, and the per-chase figures are shown because when they disagree, a pull rate is wrong. It is a floor: a box whose chase was never graded is invisible to this method.

Long-Term Score

A 0 to 10 score per set, two points each across five dimensions, shown with its breakdown wherever it appears. Appreciation: annualized return from MSRP, ranked against every other English set (top third 2, middle 1, bottom 0; under 90 days old scores 0). Chase value: the set's top-15 card value, ranked the same way. Destruction: estimated boxes opened, ranked the same way. Supply maturity: 2 points past two years from release, 1 past one year, 0 under a year (reprint waves are a first-year risk). Milestone: the one editorial dimension, a short table of the sets the game is remembered for (OP01, OP05, OP09, OP13 at 2; a few landmarks at 1), kept in one place so it can be argued with. 9 to 10 reads Generational, 7 to 8 Strong hold, 4 to 6 Moderate, under 4 Unproven.

Singles intel

Set value is the sum of every priced card. Value per card divides that by the number of priced cards. Top-1 and top-15 share are how much of the set's value sits in its single most valuable card and in its fifteen most valuable; a set at 40% in one card is one card away from repricing. Graded premium is the ten priciest cards with a PSA 10 price, slab value over raw value. Scarce gems counts cards with 30 or more graded and a gem rate under 50%.

Update cadence

Citing our data

You are welcome to quote OnePiece Terminal's numbers and charts with credit to onepiece.app and a link. For press or bulk data questions: crew@onepiece.app. Prices are point-in-time estimates, not financial advice.