OP09 Set Check: Boxes at $640 While the Lim Deck Question Resurfaces

A player on r/ONEPIECETCG asked for a current Lim build for the OP17 format and turned up nothing newer than a list from five months ago. That is a deckbuilding problem on the surface. Underneath, it is a sealed-product problem: the leader lives in OP09, a set that stopped being cheap to open a long time ago.

> $640.07 · OP09 box market price, 22 months after release

Against a $107.76 MSRP, that is a 5.9x multiple. Annualized from MSRP, OP09 has compounded at 164 percent, and the trailing year reads 182 percent. The three-month figure is the softer one at negative 20 percent, which is what a mature set looks like when the format moves on and the buyers who wanted copies already have them.

Inside the box

Rip EV on an OP09 box is $226 against that $640 market price, an EV ratio of 0.35. Every sealed product in this game is negative EV by design, so a number under 1 is normal; what 0.35 tells you is how much of the box price is scarcity rather than contents. Singles are the cheaper route to a playset, and at $26.67 per pack the math is not subtle.

The contrast with the current set is stark. OP17 boxes go for $305.73 against a $119.76 MSRP, a 2.6x multiple, with an EV ratio of 0.46 and a cost per pack of $12.74. The chase card above, Rocks.D.Xebec (118) (Super Alternate Art), sits at $6,100, which is also its all-time high. Full EV tables for both live on the EV page.

The graded side

OP09 has 52,488 cards in the PSA population with an 88 percent gem rate, and graded copies carry a 1.9x premium over raw. Our estimate puts roughly 333,257 boxes already opened, which is the real reason a two-year-old set can still print four-figure manga rares: supply of the top slots has been counted, and it is finite.

OP17 has none of that history yet. Population total is zero, gem rate is unknown, and the graded premium reads 1.6x off early comparables. Shanks (022) (Manga) at $1,497.03 is down 0.3 percent on both the week and the month, which is about as quiet as a new set gets.

Long-term read

OP09 scores 8 out of 10, labeled Strong hold, built on the population data, the 88 percent gem rate and a box price that has held a 5.9x multiple through 22 months. OP17 scores 2 out of 10, Unproven, with a three-month annualized figure of negative 75 percent and two months of trading history to its name.

That gap shows up at the card level too. Monkey.D.Luffy (079) (Super Leader Alternate Art) is off 20.6 percent on the week and 22.9 percent on the month, against an all-time high of $2,500. New sets discount fast; old ones that cleared their print run do not.

The practical note for the original poster: Lim lists age, but the cards behind them have been priced by a market with 333,257 boxes of history. The deck is the hard part. The supply side is already settled.