Chopper SP at $6,835.94 while trophy promos fall as much as 52.1%

The SP tier and the promo bench went in opposite directions

One card carried the week. Tony Tony.Chopper (SP) printed at $6,835.94, up 33.2% over seven days, and it was not even the biggest percentage move on the board. Underneath it, the promo bench, the event packs and finalist sets that have been the cheap end of the collector market, lost between a third and half their value. The chart above shows the kind of step function you normally only get after an announcement. There was no announcement.

> $6,835.94 · the high print on this week's leaderboard, up 33.2%

Gainers

The top of the board is a mix of a rare SP and two cards that simply had no float. Lucky.Roux led on percentage, and Kouzuki Hiyori (Alternate Art) was the only sub-$30 card to post a move our radar graded abnormal.

Two EB02 SPs in the top five is the structural story. Kyros (SP) at $529 and the Chopper print moved together, which is what you expect when a single tier gets bid rather than a single character.

Losers

The damage was concentrated and it was all promo. Trafalgar Law (CS 26-27 Event Pack) was the worst card on the board at $46.78, down 52.1%, roughly halved in a week. Event-pack promos are distributed in volume and priced on scarcity assumptions that keep getting revised as more of them reach the market.

Monkey.D.Luffy (Store Championship Trophy Card) is the expensive casualty, settling at $708.21 after a 45.5% drawdown. A card at that level moving that far in seven days is usually one or two sales redefining the whole quote, not a broad repricing, but the quote is what the tape records.

Third, Kouzuki Oden (Regionals Finalist Card Set 26-27 Vol.2) at $107.59, down 41%. Note the pattern: the 26-27 season promos are the ones unwinding, while a 2023 finalist card gained 29.7%. Recency is the discount, not the premium.

Boxes

OP11 leads the EV table at a 0.77 ratio, with a $547.37 box market against $422 of expected singles value. OP14 sits at 0.75 on a $258.97 box, OP15 at 0.71, PRB02 at 0.68 and EB03 at 0.60.

Read the ratio plainly: every one of those is below 1.00, meaning the average box returns less in singles than it costs. That is by design, not by accident, since sealed pricing carries the distributor margin and the lottery premium. The ratio is a relative measure of how little you are paying for that lottery ticket. Full table on the EV page.

Whale watch

Five cards tripped the highest severity flag this week, and four of them appear above. The fifth data point is the one worth isolating: our radar logged the Kouzuki Hiyori (Alternate Art) move at 71.2% against the 62.1% weekly close, meaning the intraweek spike overshot where it settled. Low-float EB01 alt arts do this routinely.

The Chopper and Luffy flags are more interesting because of the dollar amounts attached. A 33.2% gain and a 45.5% loss at four-figure price points move more notional value than every other name on this page combined.

The read

Two separate markets reported this week. The SP and alt-art tier behaved like a thin collectible market with real bids. The promo tier behaved like supply catching up to a price, with the newest season's product leading the decline.

What we cannot tell from seven days is whether the promo unwind is a reset or a trend. Check the 90-day chart on any of the names above before deciding which one you are looking at.