A community thread asked whether the ST10 Luffy leader survives EB05. The tape shows a 42% monthly move on the leader and a brand new set trading at 2.9x MSRP.
A thread on r/ONEPIECETCG this week asked the simple question: does the ST10 Luffy leader still hold a seat in the EB05 meta? The price feed had already filed its opinion. Monkey.D.Luffy (002) is up 21.5% over seven days and 42% over thirty, printing $16.23 against an all-time high of $16.26. The card above is, for practical purposes, sitting on its ceiling.
> $16.23 · ST10 Luffy's live price, a hair under its all-time high
EB05 at $345.67 a box, 2.9x MSRP
EB05 is the product everyone is pricing their decks against, and it is expensive out of the gate. A box trades at $345.67 versus an MSRP of $119.76, a 2.9x multiple, which works out to $14.40 of cost per pack at current market. The set is zero months past release, so there is no annualized return to quote yet and no history to annualize from.
That is the backdrop for the ST10 question. A starter deck leader that can be acquired for the price of a single chase single is always going to draw attention when the new extra booster is clearing three figures a box.
Inside the box
Rip EV on EB05 sits at $313 against the $345.67 box, an EV ratio of 0.91. Every sealed product is negative EV by design, so a ratio under 1 is the normal state of the world; 0.91 is simply a tighter gap than most, which is what tends to happen when a set is new and singles have not finished settling. For comparison across the catalog, the EV page shows current leaders clustered lower.
Three cards tied at the same number near the top is the signature of a set whose singles market is still being discovered rather than priced.
The graded side
EB05 has a PSA population of zero, which is what you expect from a set this fresh. The graded data worth reading sits on the ST10 side, where the deck has been in circulation long enough to produce a real sample.
The Luffy leader has 587 PSA submissions at an 86% gem rate, with PSA 10 copies at $122.50, a 7.5x premium over raw. Trafalgar Law (001) shows 281 graded at a 92% gem rate and a $50 PSA 10, a 3.6x multiple. Trafalgar Law (010) is thinner at 71 graded, also 92% gem, with PSA 10s at $45.08 for a 4.2x. The Luffy premium is the outlier in that group, and the lower gem rate on the biggest population is part of why.
Long-term read
EB05 carries a Long-Term Score of 0 out of 10, labeled Unproven. That is not a verdict on the cards; it is an arithmetic consequence of zero months on the market, no graded population and no return history to measure. The score will have something to work with once the set has a few months of tape.
The ST10 singles tell a more divided story. While Luffy ran to its high, Law 001 gave back 13.3% on the week despite being up 56.9% on the month, and still trades below its $18.54 all-time high. Law 010 is off 7.6% on the week with a 29.5% monthly gain. Leader demand, not deck demand, is doing the work here, and the chart shows where the move concentrated.
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