A thread on r/ONEPIECETCG asked whether to buy one EB05 box or two. The set's sealed price, expected value and zero graded population frame the answer.
A player on r/ONEPIECETCG posted the oldest question in sealed product: one box or two. The set in question is EB05, which is new enough that the data behind it is thin in exactly the places buyers care about. The chart above belongs to Luffy, Now's Your Chance, a common from the set, and it is about as flat as a chart can get.
> $340.09 · current market price for one sealed EB05 box
Luffy, Now's Your Chance, EB05-008, at $4.99
The card above is a common trading at $4.99, which is also its all-time high. Seven-day change is 0 percent. There is no 30-day print yet, because the set has been out for less than a month and the series simply does not extend that far back.
Five dollars for a common is not nothing, and it is the kind of number that tends to move once league play sorts out what the card actually does. For now the line is flat because the market has not had enough transactions to disagree with itself.
Raw against the slab
There is no PSA 10 comparable. Graded population across the whole of EB05 sits at 0, which means no gem rate, no graded premium multiple, and no slab-versus-raw spread to read.
That is normal for a set at zero months since release, but it matters for the two-box question. Anyone buying a second box on the theory that grading recovers the cost is buying into a market that does not yet exist. The submissions have not come back, and the population curve has not started.
The rest of the set
Among EB05's top cards, Nico Robin (016) leads at $29.99, with Yamato, Alvida and Jewelry Bonney clustered at $24.99 each. Nico Robin (010) rounds out the group at $9.99. The EB05-008 Luffy sits well below that tier.
That ceiling is the whole story on the box math. Sealed EB05 trades at a 2.8 multiple over its $119.76 MSRP, which works out to $14.17 per pack at market. Expected value lands at $313, for an EV ratio of 0.92.
| EB05 |
Figure |
| Box market |
$340.09 |
| Box EV |
$313 |
| EV ratio |
0.92 |
| MSRP multiple |
2.8 |
| Long-Term Score |
0 of 10 |
Every box is negative EV by design, so a ratio below 1 is the default state, not an indictment. For context, the current leaders on the EV board run from 0.76 at OP11 down to 0.60 at EB03. EB05 at 0.92 is tighter than any of them, which is what a freshly released set with elevated singles usually looks like before the opened supply catches up.
Where this leaves it
The Long-Term Score for EB05 reads 0 of 10, labelled Unproven. That is a statement about missing history, not a verdict: there is no 3-month CAGR, no 1-year CAGR and no graded data to score against.
The second box, in pure data terms, doubles exposure to a 0.92 ratio on a set whose top single prints at $29.99 and whose chase structure is still unresolved. Check the screener as the singles settle; the first real 30-day prints on EB05 cards are a few weeks out.
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